So here's the deal: soda sales have been on the decline as consumers flock to better-tasting, ostensibly healthier, more "natural" beverages like Vitamin Water, which is owned by Coca Cola (NYSE: KO).
According to Beverage Digest, U.S. soda sales in major retail channels overall declined 3.5% in the first quarter, and convenience-store sales dropped fell 4.2%.
How does the soft drink industry plan to combat the trend? According to the Wall Street Journal(subscription required) , "To win back sales, several Coca-Cola and Pepsi bottlers are conducting pilot tests on a variety of bottle sizes they hope will appeal to consumers put off by the 20-ounce bottle or looking for a cheaper option to cushion the blow of high food and energy prices."
I'll be shocked -- shocked -- if this does anything to boost soda sales. Soda sales are declining for a very good reason: soda is bad for you and people now have great-tasting alternatives. At the risk of being alarmist, I think that soda sales -- at least in the United States -- are in a permanent state of decline. I think Coke knows that: they saw the future and bought Vitamin Water.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Glu Mobile, USA Technologies and Fulton Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:
Merriman initiated Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU) with a Buy rating and thinks the valuation already reflects the potential effects of a slowdown in consumer spending. The firm believes shares have the potential to trade to a range of $8-$10.
Merriman also started USA Technologies (NASDAQ: USAT) with a Buy rating. The firm believes the company is uniquely positioned in the wireless machine-to-machine market given its initial traction with Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA) in deploying a cashless payment solution for the beverage vending industry.
B. Riley believes Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) can return to its legacy of achieving consistent earnings growth with the resolution of the Resource Mortgage tribulations. The firm initiated shares with a Buy rating and $14 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
JP Morgan assumed Taser (NASDAQ: TASR) with an Overweight rating.
Calyon initiated Rowan Cos (NYSE: RDC) with an Add rating and $42 target.
Credit Suisse started VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with an Outperform rating and $14 target.
Awhile back, amid the subprime default fall-out, more-somber outlook for the U.S. economy and hence, the markets, yours truly suggested that investors increase the number of defensive stocks in their portfolios. In doing so I drew on a lesson offered by my late Uncle Nick, a lifelong New York Giants fan and season ticket holder. The wisdom:
In tough times, think established companies. Something, as my Uncle Nick would say, "As strong as the New York Giants' defensive front four." And I added that in case one hadn't noticed lately, the defensive front four of the Giants, also the favorite football team of yours truly, is still pretty good.
(My late Uncle Nick, of course, based his advise on the Giants' longstanding tradition of building a strong defense first, because, according to many revered football head coaches, Vince Lombardi and Bill Parcells among them, defense wins championships.)
Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT): After last week's success with their gout drug, these shares haven't stopped rising. They reached a new high of $21.36 against 52-week low of $10.58.
"Stock prices continue to behave bearishly," caution David Nassar and Larry McMillan, options experts and editors of the industry-leading The MarketWatch Options Trader.
Here, they offer a bearish market overview along with a bullish look at beverage stocks -- along with an options play on PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP).
The advisors explain, "Rallies can't gain footholds, while declines are deeper and more long-lasting than seem possible. As a result, there is an oversold condition in this market -- one which can spur sharp, but short-lived rallies at any time -- but a true intermediate-term buy signal is not at hand, for none of our indicators have turned bullish.
"The Standard & Poor's 500 turned bearish when the index fell through what had been support at 1490. That was the last piece of the bearish puzzle. The market has been under extreme pressure ever since. Any rallies towards 1490 can be sold, as that level now represents resistance.
"Meanwhile, where is support? It was at 1430-1440, but that level gave way and it seems likely now that the averages will test 1410 (the August closing lows) and perhaps 1370 -- which is multiple support from both August and March.
"Should that give way, then a true bear market would be underway. Support levels are somewhat meaningless in a nasty decline like this anyway; it is more important to monitor oversold conditions.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The broadline retail sector, Coca-Cola Enterprises, PepsiCo, Pepsi Bottling and Discovery Holdings were today's noteworthy initiations:
BMO Capital believes the broadline retail sector will be pressured until valuations reflect a potential recession in 2008, or the housing market begins to stabilize. The firm initiated the sector with an Underperform rating, and started shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) with Outperform ratings and a $52 target and $68 target, Macy's (NYSE: M) with a Market Perform rating and $35 target, and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) with an Underperform rating and $38 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RadiSys, Diageo plc, Vitesse, Big 5 Sporting Goods and Coca-Cola Enterprises were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of RadiSys (NASDAQ: RSYS) to Buy from Hold following the Q3 upside to reflect the large ramp of new business expected in 2008.
Lehman raised its rating on Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) to Equal Weight from Underweight and has increased confidence that the group can increase margins.
CIBC upgraded shares of Vitesse (NASDAQ: VTSS) to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer following the company's business update, as they believe progress is being made on numerous fronts.
Nollenberger upgraded shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods (NASDAQ: BGFV) to Buy from Neutral following the better-than-expected Q3 results and improved full-year outlook, as they believe visibility has improved significantly.
Citigroup upgraded Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe the stock is undervalued given Glaceau's expansion to European markets. The broker recommends taking profits in Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) and swapping into CCE.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, Paccar, Pacific Sunwear, Talbots and RightNow Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and is positive on the company's free cash flow generation.
Wachovia raised Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR) estimates to Market Perform from Underperform based on better-than-expected European performance.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe the demo division divestiture and improving product execution in core PacSun stores could drive accelerating EPS growth.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation but remains concerned about the company's long-term outlook.
Roth Capital upgraded RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) to Buy from Hold, as they are encouraged by RNOW's Q3 results and raised guidance and believes the worst is behind the company.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to its Conviction Buy List.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Akamai (NADAQ: AKAM) to Overweight from Market Weight.
Lehman upgraded Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) implied volatility Flat as HANS near record high. HANS markets and distributes beverages. HANS has a market cap of $4.69 billion. Goldman Sachs says "we continue to be optimistic about the company's prospects for the full-year and into 2008 based on; 1) distribution benefits from the Anheuser Busch (NYSE: BUD) agreement, and 2) the positive early read on the newly launched Java Monster." HANS October option implied volatility of 43 is near its 17-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.
Cott (NYSE: COT) volatility Elevated as COT sells off 18% on lower guidance. COT, a supplier of retailer brand beverages, is recently down $1.89 to $8.27.COT lowered financial guidance, citing weaker than expected volumes and higher input costs. BMO Capital Markets says "if there is good news, it is that some degree of the profit warning may already be priced into the share price." COT announced on 4/13/07 "COT has responded to interested parties that have approached the Company, and is exploring the potential benefits of participating in possible industry consolidation." COT October option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, indicating larger price fluctuations.
Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The process control sector, R.H. Donnelley, Vonage, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Transocean were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Baird reduced estimates across the board in the process control sector due to lower expectations for North American industrial and residential construction. The firm downgraded Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Regal-Beloit Corp (NYSE: RBC) and Baldor Electric (NYSE: BEZ) to Neutral from Outperform and AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) to Underperform from Neutral.
Goldman downgraded shares of R.H. Donnelley Corporation (NYSE: RHD) to Neutral from Buy after the company updated its 2007 guidance to reflect deteriorating trends in local advertising.
Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil due to liquidity concerns.
Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank on valuation and mixed near-term trends.
Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli. Even though the deepwater market continues to be strong, the firm is concerned regarding the continuing weakness in the jackup market as well as the limited upside potential due to the company's ships being in use through 2009.
The world's largest maker of Pepsi-Cola beverages is not PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) itself, but a 1999 PepsiCo spin-off with the clearest mission statement in corporate America.
Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) is engaged in the manufacture, sale and distribution of Pepsi-Cola beverages. The firm operates about 300 manufacturing and distribution facilities and delivers Pepsi-Cola, Aquafina water, Lipton's Iced Tea, Mountain Dew, Tropicana juice, Starbucks Frappuccino and Slice to stores and third-party distributors. PBG operates in North America and Europe, accounting for more than half of the Pepsi-Cola beverages sold in North America and about 40% of the worldwide volume. Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) is a major competitor.
There was good news for PBG investors last week, when Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the beverage group to "attractive." The analyst noted the potential for improved performance, as costs for most of the commodities used to make and bottle beverages stabilize.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. beverage sector, ImClone, Starwood Hotels and Marriott International were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. beverage sector, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP), Anheuser Busch Companies (NYSE: BUD), PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm cited expectations for a stronger 2008, benign commodity cost outlook, better than expected US beer demand, and valuations. Goldman upgraded shares of PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and improving industry fundamentals.
Bear Stearns upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing positive Flex trial results and the new market opportunity for Erbitux.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) and Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) to Market Weight from Underweight based on healthy August trends, credit market may ease concerns over supply growth, and valuations.
QLogic was cut to Neutral from Outperform and removed from JP Morgan's Focus List due to the lack of catalysts to drive shares higher.
Caris cut shares to Average from Above Average and Pacific
Crest downgraded QLogic to Sector Perform from Outperform as the company's profits decline.
Citigtroup downgraded CNet Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) to Hold from Buy as they no longer expect material revenue growth acceleration and operating leverage in 2H07; First Albany cut shares to Neutral from Buy.
HSBC downgraded shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) to Neutral from Overweight to reflect worse than expected pricing pressures.
Matrix downgraded shares of Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Hold from Buy on increasing competition and rising costs.
Piper cut Anadys Pharma (NASDAQ: ANDS) to Underperform from Outperform following the company's announcement that it has discontinued development of ANA975...
So who is the world's largest manufacturer, seller and distributor of Pepsi-Cola beverages? Here's a hint. It is not PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). It is, in fact, a 1999 PepsiCo spin-off headquartered in Somers, New York.
Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) is engaged in the manufacture, sale and distribution of Pepsi-Cola beverages. The firm operates about 300 manufacturing and distribution facilities and delivers Pepsi-Cola, Dr Pepper, Aquafina water, Lipton's Iced Tea, Mountain Dew, Tropicana juice, Starbucks Frappuccino and Slice to stores and third-party distributors. PBG operates in North America and Europe, accounting for more than half of the Pepsi-Cola beverages sold in North America and about 40 percent of the worldwide volume. Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) is a major competitor.
The company pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported Q2 EPS of $0.70 and revenues of $3.36 billion. Analysts had been expecting $0.63 and $3.29 billion. Management also guided FY07 EPS to $2.02-$2.07, versus Street consensus of $1.98. PBG shares popped into the initial stage of a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern on the news. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys," one "buy," ten "holds" and one "sell." The PBG P/E ratio (16.08), Price to Sales ratio (0.62), Price to Book ratio (3.64), Price to Cash Flow ratio (6.81), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (29.56) and Return on Equity (24.91%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions own about 58% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $30.13 and $36.47. A stop-loss of $31.35 looks good here.
So here's the deal: soda sales have been on the decline as consumers flock to better-tasting, ostensibly healthier, more "natural" beverages like Vitamin Water, which is owned by Coca Cola (NYSE: KO)..gif){kind=logo}
Awhile back, amid the subprime default fall-out, more-somber outlook for the U.S. economy and hence, the markets, yours truly suggested that investors increase the number of 
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had been expecting $0.63 and $3.29 billion. Management also guided FY07 EPS to $2.02-$2.07, versus Street consensus of $1.98. PBG shares popped into the initial stage of a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern on the news. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.
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