cce

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded URS Corp. (NYSE: URS) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to Outperform from Neutral based on momentum of new wins from stimulus funds and expectations for additional nuclear contracts.
• Jefferies upgraded EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Buy from Hold following the recent share weakness as it believes volumes have stopped declining and the June quarter is likely the bottom. The firm raised its target price to $18 from $11.
• RBC Capital upgraded Camden Property (NYSE: CPT) to Outperform from Sector Perform citing the company's improved financial capacity and portfolio position. The firm raised its target price to $34 from $23.
• CBS Corp (NYSE: CBS) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
• UDR (NYSE: UDR) was raised to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital and to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Zale (NYSE: ZLC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merril.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) to Outperform from Perform on expectations the stock will outperform in the second half of 2009 due to easier comparisons and a "deeper and longer" restructuring cycle. The firm has a $62 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Cigna (NYSE:CI) to Hold from Sell to reflect reduced balance sheet risk following the company's capital raise and the potential for a PBM sale. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $13.
• Goldman expects Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE) to benefit from favorable soda demand and lower commodity costs. The firm upgraded shares to Conviction Buy from Buy and has a $20 target on the stock.
• Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill.
• CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
• Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA) to Buy from Neutral and has a $5.50 target on shares. Shares were upgraded due to the potential impact from infrastructure spending. Note that Goldman downgraded Steel Dynamics (NYSE: STLD) and Olympic Steel (NYSE: ZEUS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Buy from Neutral and raised the price target to $18 from $15. The firm the strong Q1 report gives them greater confidence in shares.
  
• Roth Capital upgraded Halozyme (NASDAQ: HALO) to Buy from Hold due to increased clarity into Roche programs, the discontinuation of the chemophase program, and progress on insulin delivery.
• American Movil (NYSE: AMX) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) were upgraded at HSBC to Overweight from Neutral.

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning. By the end of the day, the main enemy of PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) was down 2.8% on better-than-average volume. Coke said that it earned 65 cents per share on an adjusted basis. According to Beth Gaston Moon's earnings preview, management met Wall Street's expectations.

So, right off the bat, you can see why the market wasn't so kind to Coke's shares. Meeting expectations isn't enough sometimes. But there are some other issues here, too.

Revenue was kind of soft, and a look at the statement of cash flows shows a decrease in money generated from operations. That number decreased over 20% to roughly $870 million.

Analyst upgrades:

• KeyBanc upgraded Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company has options to forestall covenant violations or bankruptcy, event if conditions deteriorate further.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Market Perform from Underperform citing low expectations, favorable FTC settlement, progress on cost cutting, and valuation.
  
• JP Morgan believes First Merit (NASDAQ: FMER) is one of the best positioned Midwest banks to weather the storm and notes its compelling valuation and capital levels. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Compass Minerals (NYSE: CMP) was lifted to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), the arch rival of PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), is set to report Q4 numbers on Thursday, February 12. Coke is estimated to earn 61 cents per share, a growth of about 5%. Is it doable? More importantly, will Coke be able to beat projections? I'd say it might, considering that the two major bottlers out there, Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE), both beat on their respective bottom lines this week. Pepsi Bottling trounced expectations by 5 cents, and Coke's bottler did better by 3 cents.

Not that the quarter will have been a cake walk. There will be issues with currency translations and the global slowdown. Even though Coke sells products that are theoretically defensive against a recession, I imagine that guidance will be conservative, and I would bet that growth in case volume, a very important metric for beverage companies, will be down. I'll hope for the best, but I'm bracing myself for that outcome.

Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) reported earnings for Q4 today. The stock is up slightly as I write this, somewhere around 0.6%. Not a huge rise, especially after beating expectations, but considering the huge drop in the market today, I'd say it's a pretty big victory for shareholders.

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

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When you think about it, corporations are no different than consumers. They see the economic writing on the wall, and they react to it accordingly. So it was no surprise when PepsiCo's (NYSE: PEP) CEO Indra Nooyi said she was down on beverage acquisitions in North America. Instead, she'd like to drive profits in an organic fashion. In my opinion, she's basically saying that she doesn't feel that the economy has hit a bottom yet and that she's got time to look around for prospects to add to her company's portfolio.

I think she's probably correct (if she actually is thinking along those lines), but I would add that, if a particularly compelling prospect came along, I wouldn't necessarily reject it in knee-jerk fashion just because the economy is one scary beast. Remember that PepsiCo, or any company for that matter, can buy other businesses for cheap valuations at the moment. Of course, those other businesses know that, and probably are holding off from putting themselves up on the block. So I do realize that being a value buyer in this climate is more complex than it appears to be at first glance.

She's also on the right track in terms of concentrating on growing internally. I don't think companies focus as much as they should on internal growth. As Nooyi pointed out, organic innovation can indeed be the more attractive economic alternative to pricey buyouts.

Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE), the big bottler for Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and a competitor of both PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) and Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG), is trying, like every company out there, to grapple with the recession. Sure, sodas and waters might seem like an attractive business to be in since people will still buy them in a down economy, but make no mistake about it -- Coca-Cola Enterprises needs to be on top of its game to protect those margins.

This leads me to this: According to Beverage World, Coca-Cola Enterprises wants a little more efficiency in its system. What corporate structure doesn't, right? So, management is taking a fresh look at the supply chain and the packaging it uses. Already, the company has shed 1,000 jobs and combined some units. Becoming leaner and working in a smarter fashion is key to keeping the bottom line steady and, hopefully, growing. It's only part of the picture, though. The logistics of distribution should be looked at, don't get me wrong. That obviously is the bottler's main function. Marketing, however, has to be stepped up as well. And that's Coca-Cola's job.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) to Buy from Neutral on valuation after channel checks indicated an increase in gun sales in October after an Obama win became apparent. The firm believes shares can trade up into the $4 to $5 range.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's improved balance and potential earnings power following its $11B equity offering.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Coca-Cola Enerprises (NYSE:CCE) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation and easing commodity and labor costs.
• Manulife (NYSE:MFC) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• SL Green Realty (NYSE:SLG) was upgraded at UBS to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.

Analyst downgrades:

• Barclays downgraded General Motors (NYSE:GM) to Underweight from Equal Weight on cash concerns and believes any assistance from the government would substantially dilute equity holders. Barclays set a $1 target on GM shares.
  
• Stephens cut LandAmerica (NYSE:LFG) to Underweight from Equal Weight following the Fidelity National (NYSE:FNF) takeover as they expect no other bidders to emerge and believe shares could go back to under $5 if Fidelity National walks away.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded solar companies to reflect deteriorating fundamentals in the sector, an adequate supply of c-Si modules, the strengthening dollar and restricted access to capital. First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ), Energy Conversion (NASDAQ:ENER) and Sunpower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) were downgraded to Hold from Buy.
• Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) were downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
  
• FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst initiations:

• Freeport McMoRan, HLS Systems, and Kimberly Clark were today's noteworthy initiations:
  
• Banc of America expects Freeport McMoRan's (NYSE:FCX) earnings will decline sharply in 2009 and thinks the dividend could be at risk. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating and $29 target.
  
• Roth Capital initiated HLS Systems (NASDAQ:HOLI) with a Buy rating and $5 target. The firm is positive on the company's management team and the company's outlook for EPS growth.
  
• Citigroup thinks Kimberly Clark's (NYSE:KMB) margins have bottomed and that the current valuation is too low. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $65 target.
• Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) were initiated at Merrill Lynch with Neutral ratings.
  
• Tim Hortons (NYSE:THI) was assumed with a Sell rating at Goldman.

Blue-chip soda titan Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) slipped into the red this morning after Standard & Poor's last night revised the company's outlook to "negative." The ratings change also affects the Dow component's two main bottling units, Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling (NYSE: CCH). Analyst Jean Stout noted, "Weak economic conditions in select markets and volatile commodity costs have pressured the Coke system's operating performance."

Currently, Coca-Cola's S&P rating is "A+," the fifth-highest investment-grade notch. The downwardly revised outlook indicates that the rating is in danger of being cut over the next one to two years. In response to S&P's "negative" label, CCE postponed pricing a previously announced, $1 billion bond issue.

Stout added that "reduced share repurchases at Coke could restore some financial flexibility to the Coke system," but warned, "weakening macroeconomic conditions, as well as further acquisitions at Coke, CCE, or CCHB will likely further weaken Coke system credit measures."

Almost a year ago, when Steve Halpern suggested that investors take a second look at Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), he offered a very sound argument: the manufacturer had a strong domestic and international presence, was trading well and -- perhaps most importantly -- was heavily involved in staples. Over the ensuing year, Halpern's advice has proven to be pretty strong. In fact, on September 29, when the bottom was falling out of the market, P&G was one of the three stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the least.

P&G, as well as the other two stocks that fell the least, Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE), and the one S&P stock that actually rose, Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) have a few things in common. First off, they all are connected to products that make people feel safe. These sorts of brands (which Kevin Roberts calls Lovemarks) are almost recession-proof. When things get bad and people lose faith in the market, they experience an ever-greater desire to reach for a Coke and a smile, grab a bowl of "Mmm! Mmm! Good!" Campbell's soup and eat a plate of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese. Given their ability to evoke memories of a comforting childhood, these mid-level brands will often experience an uptick in troubling times.

The other thing that all these companies have in common is that they are staples. In boom times, people tend to eat out more, subcontract cleaning and laundry services, and try pricier, upscale brands. In tougher times, however, the tendency to eat in and do one's own laundry means that companies like Kraft, Coca-Cola and P&G may actually find themselves in a better financial position. This isn't to say that staples don't have ups and downs, but rather that their fluctuations tend to be less severe -- and they sometimes even buck the prevailing market trends!

Analyst upgrades:

• JP Morgan lowered its 2009 North American light vehicle production estimate by 13% to 11.2M and Europe by 10% to 19M. The firm upgraded Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) to Overweight from Neutral citing balance sheet and revenue growth.
  
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Kroger (NYSE: KR) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $32 from $28 as they expect the company's value image to benefit in the current environment.
  
• Leerink upgraded AMAG Pharma (NASDAQ: AMAG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they believe current data is sufficient for some form of first cycle approval of Ferumoxytol.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Watsco (NYSE: WSO) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• UBS upgraded Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underperform from Buy and lowered its target to $9.50 from $23 on the worsening macro environment, which they believe is "overwhelming" the company's ability to drive even flat comps in Q4 and FY09.
  
• Deutsche Bank cut Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) to Hold from Buy and lowered its target to $19 from $28 following the company's worse-than-expected outlook, as they expect shares to be range bound.
  
• Banc of America downgraded the Dry Bulk Shipping sector to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect the "depressed" charter rate environment, tighter credit markets and the weakening macroeconomic outlook. The firm downgraded Britannia Bulk (NYSE: DWT), Navios Maritime (NYSE: NM) and TBS International (NASDAQ: TBSI) to Neutral from Buy.
• Eaton (NYSE: ETN) was lowered to Underperform from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• AXA (NYSE: AXA) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• Aracrus (NYSE: ARA) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.